AROUND THE LEAGUE: WEEK 15

by Joseph Reina

            Welcome back to Around The League, your home for numbers and nuance from the past week of action in the Major Arena Soccer League. The Kansas City Comets and San Diego Sockers played an extraordinary back-to-back series, and the Baltimore Blast extended their winning streak to eight games, but our focus this week is on the Empire Strykers, who announced a shocking decision before their game on Sunday.

Change On The Bench For Empire?

Just as the Strykers arrived at the UWM Panther Arena for their game against the Wave, the team announced that captain Robert Palmer “will serve in a player-coach role” for the game. Onua Obasi “remains the Strykers Head Coach and will continue supporting the team as it prepares for the crucial final stretch of its campaign.” 

The move, dubbed “unconventional” by the team, came on the heels of a 6-3 loss to Tacoma that allowed the Stars to reclaim the 6th and final playoff spot, with just a handful of games left to play. Empire’s Managing Partner Jeff Burum explained the decision, saying, “We simply felt this was a moment when trying something different might help unlock another dimension within the team.”

Before warmups, I asked Palmer what we can expect from this team going forward, and he highlighted the need for a more dynamic approach. “Probably the traditional way of playing indoor soccer that everyone knows and fell in love with playing,” Palmer said. “We already know how to play with the goalie up as a weapon, so I think being more dynamic will help make it hard to prepare for us.”

Burum and Palmer’s words proved prophetic on Sunday as the Strykers thrashed the Wave, 6-3, with a different style of play than we’ve seen under Obasi. Palmer’s tactical approach induced and exploited counterattacks, prioritized intricate ball movement, and crucially, used just five field players. 

“We have players who are very special, and today, everybody contributed to the team’s success,” said Palmer after the game. “I told them, ‘Have fun, be free,' and I think giving them the responsibility to hold themselves accountable, you could see they were playing with confidence. They were just more free.”

The Strykers scored four straight, jumping out to a 4-0 lead over Milwaukee before halftime. Marco Fabián led the way with a goal and three assists, while Alan Perez finished the game with a hat-trick. Goalkeeper Brandon Gomez’s 0.833 save percentage is the team’s second-best return all season, while his teammates blocked 10 shots, the seventh time they’ve hit that figure and the third in a regulation win. 

They hit the Wave in transition well and capitalized on set-piece opportunities while subduing the Wave’s high-powered offense. Oscar Flores and Alex Sanchez both ended the evening without a point, as Milwaukee struggled to find its rhythm, even with Gerardo Perez playing as a 6th attacker in the final period.

Going into their game against the Wave, Empire boasted the second-highest shot differential (Hoxie) with +49 and the second-most Hoxie points (35), behind only San Diego in both categories. However, the Strykers significantly underperformed on those figures, earning just 25 of the 35 points they would have been expected to accumulate given the number of shots they took and the shots they faced. 

   Modern data analysts agree that an individual player’s shooting ability and shot conversion rarely exceed an average return; they’re incredibly random in small sample sizes but statistically don’t fluctuate over long periods, especially when looking at a team as a whole.

Only a handful of players worldwide consistently outperform their xG, with Lionel Messi, Harry Kane, and Son Heung-min leading the pack. Even Erling Haaland, known for his otherworldly finishing, sits near his career xG total, bouncing above and below from week to week.

Given that our MASL xG model is based solely on shot totals and the understanding that shooting and shot conversion rates rarely vary, it's reasonable to assume that the explanation in this case is chance creation. A high Goals Per Shot (GPS) does not mean the team in question is suddenly better at finishing than any other team; it means they create better chances.

For example, a shot from inside the goal box is more likely to result in a goal than a shot from behind the yellow line. This intuitively makes sense and is reflected in each team’s GPS over the course of the season. Teams with a higher offensive GPS are likely creating more chances from dangerous positions, and teams with a lower defensive GPS are likely preventing those dangerous chances from happening.

Empire’s biggest strength is shot prevention, but when it comes to goal prevention, they’re about as average as it gets. Their opponents’ shots on target per shot (0.681), goals per shot (0.218), and goals per shot on target (0.320) are all in line with the league’s averages, which tells me that Empire isn’t any better defensively than the average team; they just possess the ball more, which in turn gives fewer opportunities to their opponents. 

Empire’s Offensive GPS stats leave a lot to be desired, with the league’s second-worst figure (0.203) ahead of only St. Louis. A team’s opponent save percentage is another tool to judge finishing ability, based on how well keepers typically play against them. On average, Empire’s opponents finish with a save percentage of 0.709, well above the league average (0.684). This gap indicates the Strykers struggle to create big chances, an issue exacerbated by the fact that they take only 24.571 shots per game, the third fewest in the league.

For Empire, their below-average offensive GPS is likely a result of their approach to possession. Despite playing with six attackers for much of the time they have the ball, Empire isn’t great at creating dangerous shooting opportunities. They’re patient and cautious, but they’re also limiting the quality of the chances they could create by only taking the safe options.

Instead of attempting the risky pass into the middle, Empire routinely cycles the ball from left to right, occasionally dropping it into the corner. They take shots from distance or tight angles, often with several defenders behind the ball. This strategy stacks the deck against them, allowing teams with above-average offensive efficiency to run rampant.

In Empire’s first 21 games, their opponents finished with an offensive GPS over 0.223 (league average) ten times. In those games, the Strykers earned just seven points or 0.7 points per game. In the 11 other contests, Empire earned 18 points or 1.636 points per game, more than double the tally when their opponent’s GPS is above the league average, and on par with Kansas City’s points per game this year. 

       On Thursday, the Strykers announced that Palmer will serve as Interim Head Coach for the remainder of the 2025-26 MASL season. At the same time, the team is “actively engaged in productive conversations with former Head Coach Onua Obasi about transitioning him into a new, high-level position within the organization.”

      This could be a massive step in the right direction for Empire. They should be applauded for trying to hold on to the man who brought the Strykers back to the playoffs, enjoyed wins over Milwaukee, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Tacoma, and even split their six-game series with San Diego this year. That’s nothing to scoff at. 

With two games remaining for both Empire and Tacoma, the Strykers hold a two-point advantage, meaning five points would secure their second consecutive playoff berth. They’ll travel to Utica this weekend before hosting St. Louis on the final day of the season, but keep an eye on the bench from here on out. Kickoff from the Adirondack Bank Center is scheduled for Sunday, Mar. 22, at 3:00 p.m. EDT.