AROUND THE LEAGUE: Week 17

by Joseph Reina

            Rather than waxing lyrical about Baltimore’s resilience or St. Louis’ resolve, I think we have bigger fish to fry. Welcome back to Around The League, your home for numbers and nuance from the past week of action in the Major Arena Soccer League.

With all due respect to last week’s action, we are dealing with a regular-season title fight that involves over half of the league and will almost certainly take all 96 games to decide. I’ll save the deep dives and tactical analysis for the playoffs and Soccer Signal (shameless plug). For now, embrace the chaos and prepare for the most intense final matchday in MASL history.

Beating 43

By far the simplest way to view this weekend is to use the league’s current leaders as the pace setters. Milwaukee and Baltimore are heavily favored to beat Utica and Tacoma, respectively, which would put them both on 43 points. If that happens, only two teams can beat that figure, given Kansas City and San Diego play each other twice, and neither of them could accrue 43 points without the other falling short. St. Louis can surpass the mark with a pair of regulation wins, but winning the shield is another question entirely. 

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a final matchday in any sport quite like this. The race for the MASL Shield is immensely convoluted and completely dependent on other results. At the risk of forgetting some obscure possibilities, let’s attempt to break down each team’s path to the Shield in order from most points possible to least.


San Diego Sockers - Points Possible: 46

The Sockers will travel to Kansas City knowing five points would secure their fourth MASL Shield title. They’ll likely need to do some scoreboard watching if they earn just four points against the Comets, as St. Louis could mathematically overtake them if the Ambush win both of their games in regulation. 

If San Diego were to win both games in overtime, the Ambush’s two regulation wins would be enough to clinch the Shield for St. Louis, so if we’re thinking about results, the Sockers need at least one regulation win and at least a point in their other game to clinch the MASL Shield and a first-round bye to go with it.


Kansas City Comets - Points Possible: 44

            If the Comets want a first-round bye and the MASL Shield, they need two regulation wins over the Sockers to do it. Anything less would open the door for St. Louis to claim the Shield and send the Comets back down the table in the 4 vs 5 matchup, by far the most likely place for the Comets to land. 

With this in mind, Kansas City has both the most to gain and the least to lose this weekend, so expect head coach Stefan Stokic and the Comets to throw everything at the Sockers in both games. Despite losing two of their three games against San Diego, Kansas City has earned five of the nine available points because the Sockers won both games in overtime. This is by far the most impactful matchup of the weekend, so make sure to catch both contests.


St. Louis Ambush - Points Possible: 44

            After the Ambush lost in overtime to San Diego, their ability to control their own destiny evaporated. They can still earn a first-round bye, but now, St. Louis will need to win both of their games in regulation and get some help from the Comets if they want any chance of winning the MASL Shield. Six points over Utica and Empire would guarantee the Ambush finishes in at least second place, but to win the Shield, they’ll need Kansas City to drop at least one but no more than four points, while the Sockers would need to either drop 3-5 points or win both games in overtime. 

By far the most likely result that would help the Ambush is a split weekend, with both teams winning one game in regulation; however, that would also likely ensure both Kansas City and San Diego teams finish in 4th and 5th place, assuming Milwaukee and Baltimore both win. This combination of results would ensure the Comets and Sockers face off again immediately in the playoffs, while opening the door to an Ambush or  Blast Shield title.


Baltimore Blast - Points Possible: 43

            Despite leading the table going into the final weekend of the season, the Blast will need to do some scoreboard watching, no matter what happens. To give themselves the best possible chance of earning at least a first-round bye, they definitely need to get a regulation win over Tacoma. 

A win is also the bare minimum for the Shield race, but they’ll also need San Diego to drop 3-4 points/Kansas City to drop 2-4 points, and the Ambush to drop at least one point. To clinch a bye, they just need one of those two outcomes to happen.


Milwaukee Wave - Points Possible: 43

Amidst the chaos of Milwaukee’s dramatic overtime win against Baltimore, the dropped point on Sunday could have cost them a chance to contend for the Shield. They have the lowest possible points and don’t have any advantages on tiebreakers over the teams around them in the standings. 

To clinch the Shield, Milwaukee needs three points against Utica, Baltimore to drop at least one point, San Diego to drop 3-4 points, Kansas City to drop 2-3 points, and St. Louis to drop 2-6 points. Not exactly a great outlook, but not inconceivable either.

Keep An Eye On The Players

As if this weekend couldn’t get any more important, there are some individual awards to dish out as well. From Scoring Champion to Pass Master, the races are as tight as the standings and will make for fascinating subplots on the final day of the regular season.


Most Points

Milwaukee’s Alex Sanchez currently leads the trailing pack with 47 points and needs just one more to tie his haul from last season. Just two points behind him sits Rian Marques (45), who has the benefit of two games left to Sanchez’s one, as does his Comets teammate, Zach Reget (40). Don’t rule out Mario Alvarez (42), Juan Pereira (41), and Sergio Penal (40), all of whom are enjoying career-best seasons.


Most Goals

With a four-goal advantage, it would take an immense effort to surpass Sanchez atop the league’s goalscoring chart. Baltimore’s Pereira (26), Kansas City’s Marques (26), and his Wave teammate Oscar Flores (26). Reget (24) is just two more behind, but certainly not out of the conversation as well.


Most Assists

Last weekend, Baltimore defender Oumar Sylla claimed the top spot on the league’s assist chart with his 21st and 22nd tally against Milwaukee. He passed Alvarez (21) and Pinal (21), while Marques (19) waits in the wings with two games left. Keep an eye on Utica’s Pinal, who also has two games to play.

 

Most Blocked Shots

            Over to the defensive side of the ball and Kansas City’s block machine, Chad Vandegriffe looks set to reclaim his crown with an astonishing 59 blocked shots. The nearest challengers are Ambush defender Robert Williamson, who has 44 blocks, and Empire’s Player-Coach Robert Palmer, just one behind him.


Lowest Goals Against Average

While not inherently an individual stat, acclaim for a team’s Goals Against Average often falls to their goalkeeper. This season, St. Louis’ netminder Paulo Nascimento leads the league with the 4.53, while Empire’s Brandon Gomez (4.71) and Brian Orozco (5.06) round out the top three.

            

Highest Save Percentage

As if his GAA wasn’t enough, Paulo’s 0.724 Save Percentage also leads the league, by a healthy margin. San Diego’s Boris Pardo (0.715) is fairly close, while Baltimore’s Julian Rodriguez (0.702) feels the effect of two consecutive games under 70% for the first time since January 24.