AROUND THE LEAGUE: Playoffs

by Joseph Reina

The dust has settled. After an incredible final day of the regular season, we have our bracket, and the indoor soccer gods have gifted us some tasty matchups. The winners will advance to face MASL Shield winners San Diego and runners-up Baltimore with a spot in the Ron Newman Cup Finals on the line. But to get there, we need some winners.

#3 Milwaukee Wave vs #6 Empire Strykers

Game 1: Thursday, Apr. 2; 9:35 pm EDT - Toyota Arena

Game 2: Monday, Apr. 6; 7:35 pm EDT - UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena

 

Our first taste of playoff soccer pits Milwaukee against Empire, and despite wearing a higher seed, the Wave are far from comfortable favorites. These two teams are familiar; they’ve faced off three times this season, with the Strykers claiming the lion’s share of the wins, most recently and notably, a 6-3 result in Milwaukee on the Ides of March.

That game represents the Wave’s worst attacking performance of the entire season, with just 10.7% of their shots finding the net. On an average night for Milwaukee, they could have expected to score 6.244 goals, but Empire held them to just three. The Wave boasts one of the league’s best attacking forces, yet against the Strykers, they couldn’t get into gear.

While luck, or a lack thereof, certainly played a part, Empire’s target defending and transition play was superb and prevented Milwaukee from building any momentum. With a do-or-die series between these two sides looming, the Strykers will need to replicate their success or risk falling at the same hurdle as last season. 

The Strykers entered that game fresh off a potentially devastating loss to Tacoma at home. Empire announced just hours before kickoff that defender Robert Plamer would take over as interim head coach in an attempt to “unlock another dimension within the team”, according to managing partner Jeff Burum. The triumph preceded two further wins as the Strykers closed out the season, earning eight of nine available points.

No one player spurred this change in fortunes. In fact, since the coaching change, the team’s strength has been its depth and balance. 10 different players have found the net since Mar. 14, and no player has scored more than four times.

They’re finding their teammates well in transition, and playing without the goalkeeper as an ever-present attacker has opened up their options offensively, allowing them to find gaps they would have passed up earlier this season. Against Milwaukee, this was incredibly apparent. 

We don’t have much statistical data to go on for Empire, given they’ve only played three games since changing their coach and system. As a result, I think it’s fair to say they’re passing the eye test and winning games, which at this time of the year is all that matters.

Standing in their way is Milwaukee, led by the league’s top scorer, Alex Sanchez. The 24-year-old is in the hunt for MVP honors after scoring and assisting 27% of the Wave’s 180 goals this campaign. Alongside him, defender Mario Alvarez and midfielder Alex Steinwascher added 42 and 40 points, respectively.

Not to be outdone, target-forward Oscar Flores introduced himself to the league with an astonishing 36 points while scoring the fifth-most goals in the league (26). They’re immense going forward, but defensively, they’re much more vulnerable, and it’s in this area where Empire will hope to capitalize. 

Milwaukee is the only playoff team with a defensive Goals Per Shot (GPS) over the league average this season, and its worst showing of the year came against the Strykers on Feb. 16. That evening, Empire scored half of their 16 shots, running out 8-7 winners after staving off a late Wave rally. The Wave has struggled against well-oiled transition teams like St. Louis, Baltimore, Empire, and Utica, making life difficult for goalkeepers William Banahene and Gerardo Perez.

            The keys to victory for Milwaukee will be allowing their targets to possess and create space while their midfielders minimize the mistakes that lead to transitions. The Strykers will look to continue what’s been working so well for them lately, with a more traditional possession style that gives their skilled attackers the freedom to be creative. If these games slow down, it will favor the Strykers, while Milwaukee would love to see them turn into a track meet.

#4 St. Louis Ambush vs #5 Kansas City Comets

Game 1: Monday, Apr 6; 8:00 pm EDT - Cable Dahmer Arena

Game 2: Wednesday, Apr 8; 8:05 pm EDT - The Family Arena


Kansas City and St. Louis opened the MASL season at the Family Arena in late November, and on Wednesday, one team’s season will end there. Six games weren’t enough to separate these two bitter rivals, so another pair of journeys, up and down I-70, will decide who advances and gets to face San Diego in the Ron Newman Cup semifinals.

The Comets will hope to overcome a frustrating final stretch of the regular season and exercise their playoff demons. Through it all, Kansas City’s defense remains its cornerstone, ranking second in Defensive GPS (0.194), while conceding 21.926 fewer goals than expected based on the shots they faced.

In their six games against the Comets, the Ambush scored just 12.1% of their shots while Kasas City blocked a staggering 18.667 shots per game. This is a hallmark of the Comets' defensive philosophy. They let teams take shots from distance or tight angles, put as many players behind the ball, and turn their opponent’s attacking opportunities into turnovers and transitional situations. 

Their system works especially well against teams that are happy to shoot from long range or into crowded areas. To put it bluntly, it’s designed to beat the Ambush. St. Louis has the lowest Offensive GPS this season (0.200), largely because of its two leading shooters, Daniel Torrealba and Mehrshad Ahmadi.

The pair takes 6.3 and 5.3 shots per game, respectively, and converts those chances roughly 15.5% of the time. It’s a symptom of the team’s attacking approach, not an indictment of their individual shooting ability, and against the Comets, it could easily cost them the series. Conversely, if they are smart and adjust to avoid Kansas City’s trap, this incredible duo could just as easily lead the Ambush to a remarkable victory

For the Ambush, the keys to success will be focusing on taking better shots, not more. They’ve done this well against the Wave and Strykers, but against the league’s better defenses, they’ve struggled. Picking targeted moments to pressure Kansas City high and win the ball back will create dangerous opportunities and give their skilled midfielders and forwards the chance to be difference-makers. 

Defensively, they need to protect Paulo in goal, force the Comets away from the box, and track runners in the middle. The Comets are excellent when it comes to using the boards to find incisive passes, and their attacking trio of Rian Marques, Zach Reget, and Dominic Francis will be eager to find or pounce on these passes into the most dangerous area on the turf.

Winning the midfield will also be crucial to this tie, and Kansas City’s spine is certainly capable. Leo Acosta, Michael Lenis, and Christian Anderaos all average over 0.8 points per game and love to transition play from defense into attack. If Kansas City can contain St. Louis’s transition by playing through pressure, they have every chance of progressing, but they’ll need to overcome Colin O’Keefe, Randy Martinez, and Riley Urie to do it.

The Comets won four of their six games against the Ambush and showed late in the season that they can compete with the league’s best week in and week out, especially with little turnaround between games. With that said, they’re not indomitable, and a loss at home would devastate their chances of advancing, so it’ll be imperative for Kansas City to throw everything at game one and put pressure on the Ambush in game two on the road.